Forecasting of the risks in the agro-industrial complex system

Abstract

The agro-industrial complex system refers to complex heterogeneous systems often exposed to external and internal risks of various nature: environmental, economic, technical, technological, social and financial. The forecasting of riskogenic events and risk management in the agro-industrial complex system is characterized by imperfection of methodological and tool support. The methods of expert assessment and cognitive modeling are not used enough in the process of risk forecasting. There is a significant number of studies on risk forecasting in the agro-industrial complex, but in general, the level of coverage of risks in the system is insufficient. The algorithms for research and forecasting of risks and risk management in the agro-industrial complex system are presented in our work. Theoretical and practical aspects of the use of expert assessment methods, cognitive modeling, generation of scenarios for riskogenic situations based on a systemic analysis of potential situations are considered in risk forecasting. The algorithms we propose can be successfully applied in the context of digitalization of the agro-industrial complex for planning, monitoring and development of innovations in the technical, socio-economic and eco-economic subsystems of the agro-industrial complex.

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